Perlukah anda menjual emas milik anda apabila harganya jatuh..?
Ianya adalah butiran perbualan antara saya dengan anak seorang rakan saya, kata En Jeff Clark, pengarang Majalah Big Gold di Pusat Penyelidikan Casey ( Casey Research )
Anak muda ini seorang yang bijak tetapi merupakan seorang pelabur baru dalam bidang ini.
Baru-baru ini beliau telah membeli emas berdasarkan beberapa tips nasihat saya kepada bapa beliau. Tidak lama kemudian harga emas jatuh agak besar. Sebagaimana yang dijangkakan beliau kelihatan tidak berapa gembira dengan nasihat saya melalui email yang dihantar . Jadi saya memanggil beliau...
Saya: Kelihatannya anda nampak tidak gembira.
Anak rakan saya : Benar, apa yang perlu saya lakukan sekarang agaknya ? Malang sungguh nasib saya.
Saya: Kerana harga emas jatuh ke baru-baru ini?
Anak rakan saya: Ya, ianya jatuh 15% dalam masa sebulan! Saya fikir anda kata ianya adalah pelaburan yang baik.
Saya: Benar. Ianya benar-benar baik. Sekiranya anda mempunyai wang lebih ketika ini , anda sewajarnya membeli lebih banyak lagi emas.
Anak rakan saya: Saya mempunyai lebihan wang di bank, tetapi kenapa perlu saya menggunakannya untuk membeli emas? Ianya terbukti merugikan saya bila harganya jatuh seperti sekarang.
Saya: Kerana ia dalam sentimen jualan. Kerana harganya lebih murah sekarang berbanding ketika anda membelinya sebelum ini.
Anak rakan saya: Ianya tidak bermakna harganya akan kembali tinggi.
Saya: Sebagaimana yang saya maklumkan kepada ayah awak, tidak ada sebarang jaminan, tetapi saya menjangkakan harganya akan meningkat lebih tinggi. Apapun , emas tetap akan mengekalkan nilainya sepanjang masa. Kita memilikinya sebagai matawang alternatif , lebih bernilai dari wang kertas yang kita gunakan sekarang kerana ianya tidak boleh diturun nilai.
Anak rakan saya : Benar, wang milik saya merosot agak besar kini. Ianya perlu meningkat hingga 20% untuk saya mendapat modal saya kembali.
Saya: 5 tahun dari sekarang wang USD milik awak akan kehilangan nilai sekurang2nya 10% dari nilainya hari ini berdasarkan situasi ekonomi hari ini.Mungkin lebih tinggi dari itu. Dan harga emas akan terus melonjak lebih dari 10% setahun. Dalam beberapa keadaan ianya mungkin dilihat menuju kepada bubble ekonomi.
Anak rakan saya: [berdiam diri.]
Saya: Lihat, saya tahu anda tidak gembira, tetapi saya tidak suka melihat anda muram. Ianya adalah pelaburan terbaik yang boleh kita lakukan pada dekad ini..
My friend's son [relenting a little bit]: You really believe that.
Me: I can't promise you anything, but yes, I do.
My friend's son: And that's because you think inflation is coming.
Me: It's for a lot of reasons, and that's one of them. Inflation is virtually baked in the cake; the Dollar's long-term problems will be impractical to resolve; and the global economy is on high alert. This is exactly the kind of circumstances gold is for.
My friend's son: Then why is it falling?
Me: Institutions need cash and liquidity, and gold offers a bid. Besides, nothing goes up in a straight line, and gold had just run up 35%. It was time for a break.
My friend's son: So this big drop really doesn't worry you.
Me: It doesn't. I'm buying. In fact, I'll prove it to you – send me your gold and I'll buy it from you.
My friend's son: [Silence.]
Me: I know it doesn't feel good right now, and it may take some time for it to make another new high, but gold is too important not to own here. It's a long-term trade, so plan on holding it for a while. In fact, if it helps, just forget about the fact that you own it – go do something fun and have a beer at the pub.
My friend's son: [a little chuckle].
Me: I don't think you made a mistake buying at the price you did, in spite of it being lower now. Odds are high you'll be happy in a few years.
My friend's son: [pause] All right...
I'm glad my friend's son decided to hold on, because that conversation took place in June, 2006. He'd bought gold at around $700 and watched a month later as the price fell to as low as $567.
Gold ended up declining a total of 21% in just five weeks before bottoming, after a run-up of 35% (sound familiar?). And yes, it took over a year before it hit a new high.
Yet my friend's son – now older and wiser – wishes he could go back in time and make the same mistake again and Buy Gold at $700. His investment is sitting on more than a double, in spite of buying at a temporary peak.
I think that a few years from now we'll all wish we could go "back in time" and Buy Gold at $1,700. And I believe you'll still feel that way if gold falls to $1,500, as some writers are projecting.
I think this because circumstances now are worse – and hence more bullish for gold – than they were in 2006. Look at how much money we've printed (the monetary base now exceeds $2.6 trillion, a mind-boggling 200% increase since 2006). Look at the state of the global economy – highly vulnerable and propped up by governments.
Consider the lingering and inescapable predicament of many European nations – scare tactics aside, how, exactly, will this be resolved in a healthy way? Ask yourself if the outlook for the US Dollar is out of the woods (roughly 10% of federal revenue goes solely to debt payments, a figure that is projected to triple).
Explain how the reckless path of deficit spending will shift without causing some kind of major impact on the economy (history shows abject deficit spending leads to economic downfall, virtually without exception).
Tell me how we avoid massive inflation, an outcome that seems so certain at this point that about the only way to avoid it would be a massive global meltdown – and even then, the Fed would surely print to oblivion.
Like I told my son's friend, nothing is guaranteed. But until real interest rates are positive again, government leaders instigate honest solutions to our debts and deficits, the global economy becomes an engine of growth, the sovereign debt issues in Europe are genuinely resolved, and global currencies – especially the US Dollar – are strong again, I'm Buying Gold.
Yes, there will be volatility. And yes, a short-term "solution" to what seems like certain default in Greece, for example, would cause some investors to sell gold. But like in the spring of 2006, these are temporary, short-term fixes only. For the tumult that is most likely ahead, there simply isn't any better currency protection than gold and silver.
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